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2.4%This market resolves YES if at least one men's national team belonging to the Confederation of African Football (CAF) is officially recognized by FIFA as reaching the semi-final stage (Top Four) of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. "Semi-finals" is defined as the official knockout stage published by FIFA, regardless of how a team advanced. It resolves NO if no CAF team reaches that stage.
Morocco's 2022 run was historic, but the bracket math is brutal. No CAF side has the depth across 7 knockout games. Holding NO.
Expanded 48-team format = more paths. I think you're underpricing the upset variance.
Loaded YES at 16¢. Asymmetric bet — small downside, huge payout if it hits.